#4: Premortem = Essential (and fun)
How to pass on accurate, less biased lessons into the future.
I found out about the premortem method indirectly through Malcolm Gladwell.1 In the early 2000s, I attended one of Gladwell's book talks at the Stanford Bookstore. I really liked his way of speaking, so I read more about him and came across an article where he mentioned being most influenced by cognitive psychologist Gary Klein. Klein is known for pioneering decision-making research.
By paying attention to Klein, I learned about the premortem method that he and his team developed, building on others' research on "prospective hindsight," which involves imagining that an event has already occurred.
In a premortem, you imagine that your goal or project has gone up in flames and work to identify potential causes.
Here is a long quote from the 2007 Harvard Business Review (HBR) article by Klein.
“A premortem is the hypothetical opposite of a postmortem. A postmortem in a medical setting allows health professionals and the family to learn what caused a patient’s death. Everyone benefits except, of course, the patient. A premortem in a business setting comes at the beginning of a project rather than the end, so that the project can be improved rather than autopsied. Unlike a typical critiquing session, in which project team members are asked what might go wrong, the premortem operates on the assumption that the “patient” has died, and so asks what did go wrong. The team members’ task is to generate plausible reasons for the project’s failure.”
For a long time, I referred people to the 2007 HBR article. While researching this post, I found a couple of more recent articles written by Klein himself: one for McKinsey in 2019 and another for Psychology Today in 2021. Each is short and useful to read. (See references at the end.)
Premortems, in my experience, are extraordinarily fun and informative. They are one of those focused types of meetings that deliver results. It is particularly satisfying because, in critical ways, it helps to grease the wheels of the project.
Incentivizes the identification of problems and rewards foresight. "Team members compete to see who can raise the most worrisome issues."
Forges a culture of candor, helping cross-functional teams to communicate directly about problems.
Sensitizes the team to pick up early signs of trouble
Develops actions and strategies to anticipated challenges.
Helps develop leading indicators on if the project is on/off track and kill criteria for when the project should be abandoned.
Premortems capture knowledge beforehand, leading to less biased post-assessments.
In other words, premortems make it possible to pass on accurate lessons for future projects.
References
Klein, Gary. (2007, September). Performing a Project Premortem. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2007/09/performing-a-project-premortem
Klein, Gary. (2019, April 3). Bias Busters: Premortems: Being smart at the start. McKinsey Quarterly.https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/bias-busters-premortems-being-smart-at-the-start
Klein, Gary. (2021, January). The Pre-Mortem Method: A practical way to do risk assessment. Psychology Today. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/seeing-what-others-dont/202101/the-pre-mortem-method
Gladwell is a prominent author and journalist known for his influential books like "The Tipping Point," "Outliers," and "Blink," which analyze social science phenomena and human behavior.